Gold price surges to a one-month high. Should you buy now?

Gold price today: On account of rising concern of slowdown in global economic activities and escalation in US China tension, gold prices surged to a one month high in the week gone by. Gold price October future contract on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) finished at 51,864 per 10 gm whereas the spot gold price ended at $1,774 per ounce after testing $1,800 levels last week.

According to commodity market experts, overall outlook for gold price is positive but profit-booking after rebound in dollar index is widely awaited and spot gold price is expected to go around $1,750 to $1,720 per ounce levels. So, one should wait for the profit-booking trigger and enter around 51,300 two 51,500 levels in the domestic market whereas in spot $1,750 would be a good buying level for gold investors.

Speaking on the reason for rise in gold price in recent sessions, Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President — Commodity & Currency Research at Religare Broking said, “Gold prices climbed to a one-month high during the week testing the key $1800 per ounce mark, as weakening factory activity data released from various economies caused deepening concerns of a slowdown in global economic activity. Another key variable behind the recent surge in gold prices was the descent witnessed in the dollar index where it plunged close to the 105 mark, before witnessing a significant rebound and printing gains for the week. Besides, escalation in tensions between China and Taiwan amid US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, much to the dislike of China, favored interest in gold as a safe haven.”

The Religare expert said that hawkish comments from key Fed officials drove up bets for sharper rate hikes this year, which prompted buying interest in the dollar at lower levels. Another key highlight of the week was the Bank of England interest rate decision, in which it raised the key rates by 50bps to 1.75 per cent, the highest since December 2008 in its fight against scorching inflation. The central bank gave a grim signal for the UK economy on the back of high energy prices and indicated elevated price pressures through the last quarter of the current year and for most of 2023. This well-invoked interest in gold from investors seeking shelter in the safety of gold.

Gold price outlook

On outlook for gold price in near future, Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Research at IIFL Securities said, “Overall outlook for gold is positive but rebound in dollar index from 105 levels suggests profit-booking ahead of next rally. So, we may see spot gold price retracing towards $1,745 to $1,750 levels in near term whereas it may go up to $1,700 levels if the US dollar continues to gain after strong US job report released on Friday.” He said that short term investors can buy gold at around 51,300 two 51,500 per 10 gm levels for the target of 52,600 per 10 gm mark whereas buying around $1,750 is suggested in spot market for short term traders. However, long-term investors are advised to start buying at 51,500 levels and keep on accumulating on every 4-5 per cent dip while in spot market one can accumulate further if gold price falls around $1,720 to $1,725 ​​per ounce levels.

“The key US jobs report towards the end of the week indicated a strong labor market for the US and established that the economy is not in a recession yet. The US economy added 528,000 jobs in July, more than double the expected 250,000 jobs, which suggested that the US Fed will continue to hike rates in the near term. This stronger-than-expected payroll report bolstered the dollar index and eroded some of the recent gains in gold,” said Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Broking.

On her suggestion to gold investors, Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Broking said, “Looking ahead, the overall bias remains tilted to the upside, but we are likely to see a cool-off in prices wherein 52,500 per 10 gm and the psychological $1800 per ounce mark are acting as stiff resistance levels and restricting the rally in prices. We expect profit booking to set in after the recent upside move, where gold will find support at 51,100 per 10 gm ($1750 per ounce) mark initially and then at 50,500 per 10 gm ($1720 per ounce). A dip towards the mentioned support areas could be seen as an opportunity to accumulate the precious metal, from where it can nudge higher and make a far-fetched switch towards 53,500 per 10 gm level.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint.

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